Las Cruces, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

497
FXUS64 KEPZ 261120
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
520 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...


 -  Showers/thunderstorms will be widespread over the area
    through Friday, becoming more isolated Saturday and Sunday.

 -  Lingering monsoon moisture will allow for daily afternoon
    showers and thunderstorms through early next week especially
    in the higher terrain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1040 PM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Monsoonal moisture remains in place over much of NM though some
mid-level dry air has crept in thanks to a dissipating trough to
our west as reflected on WV imagery and the 00z EPZ sounding.
Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing within this moisture, but with
the loss of UL support as compared to yesterday combined with loss
of instability related to this morning`s shower and thunderstorms
has led to a notable down-step compared to yesterday. With the
decrease in activity, I went ahead and ended the Flash Flood Watch
early, although the portion in the Sacs for tomorrow remains in
place.

Heights will slowly rise throughout the day tomorrow but with
moisture remaining in place. CAMs show at least scattered activity
across the CWA. Heavy rain and flash flooding will continue to be
a concern, but on a more localized scale, thus the ending of the
watch. The exception is the Sacs where south-to-north flow will
promote training of storms leading to a higher risk of excessive
rainfall. That factor combined with existing burn scars is the
reason for the watch tomorrow.

UL high will continue to build through the weekend with a new
center forming toward the Four Corners. Warming and subsidence
aloft from the high as well as a decrease in moisture will lead
to a gradual decrease in storm coverage with only isolated
coverage on Saturday and even less coverage on Sunday.
Nevertheless, enough moisture will hold in place, locked between
the Four Corners high and remaining high over the Southeast, for
just about everyone to see a low risk for storms, generally 15% or
higher. Monsoonal moisture remains in the picture for next week,
but the details begin to get fuzzy. CPC shows a moderate to high
risk of another heavy rainfall event by July 4th.

Temperatures will continue to run below normal through Friday,
approaching normal by Saturday. Next week`s highs will depend on
the amount of moisture in place. The GFS MEX has 99 for El Paso
for next Wednesday, which is above the 75th percentile of the NBM
and the official forecast of 96.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 443 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

VFR conditions expected through the morning and into the afternoon
hours with light winds at 3-7 knots and VRB. SCT SHRA/TSRA
expected during the late afternoon and evening hours for all
terminals with RA+ and gusty/erratic outflow winds as the main
concerns. If TS develops in vicinity of terminals, instances of
MVFR and IFR may develop as a result. As of now PROB30s are in
TAFs for all terminals. Outside of afternoon/evening storms,
expect variable mid and high clouds through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 443 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Fire weather concerns are low through the period. Sufficient
monsoonal moisture will remain in place for today and Friday with a
slight drying trend on Saturday and Sunday for areas west of the
RGV. Min RH values today and Friday will be above 15 percent for
most fire weather zones, with at or below 15 percent Min RH values
for the northern half of Catron County. Min RH values will trend
down on Saturday and Sunday, especially for NMZ110 and NMZ111 where
Min RH values will drop to or below Critical thresholds. Daily high
temperatures will be generally below the seasonal average, becoming
near average by this weekend. Winds will be light at 5-15 mph today
and Friday, generally out of the south. Winds remain below Critical
thresholds on Saturday and Sunday.

Daily afternoon and evening showers/storms will be possible,
especially over the mountains. Heavy rainfall over the region will
be the bigger concern for area burn scars and flash flooding like
the Trout fire burn area and Seven Springs burn area through Friday.
If storms develop in the vicinity of the area incidents, gusty and
erratic outflow winds will be a possibility, along with dangerous
lightning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  91  71  90  71 /  60  50  40  30
Sierra Blanca            84  64  85  65 /  70  50  60  30
Las Cruces               88  66  87  65 /  50  40  30  20
Alamogordo               87  64  87  65 /  60  30  50  20
Cloudcroft               65  48  64  49 /  70  30  70  20
Truth or Consequences    89  67  90  67 /  30  20  30  10
Silver City              84  61  85  61 /  40  20  40  20
Deming                   91  66  91  65 /  40  40  30  30
Lordsburg                91  65  92  65 /  40  20  40  20
West El Paso Metro       88  72  87  72 /  60  50  40  30
Dell City                88  67  87  68 /  60  40  60  20
Fort Hancock             90  71  90  70 /  70  50  60  30
Loma Linda               82  65  80  65 /  60  40  50  20
Fabens                   90  69  89  70 /  60  50  50  20
Santa Teresa             87  68  86  68 /  50  50  40  30
White Sands HQ           88  71  87  71 /  50  40  40  30
Jornada Range            88  66  87  65 /  40  40  40  20
Hatch                    90  66  90  65 /  40  30  40  20
Columbus                 91  68  90  70 /  40  40  30  30
Orogrande                86  66  85  65 /  50  40  50  20
Mayhill                  77  53  76  54 /  80  30  80  20
Mescalero                77  53  76  53 /  70  20  70  20
Timberon                 72  50  72  50 /  70  30  70  20
Winston                  82  53  82  53 /  30  20  40  10
Hillsboro                88  61  87  62 /  40  20  50  20
Spaceport                88  63  87  62 /  40  30  40  20
Lake Roberts             85  55  86  57 /  40  20  40  20
Hurley                   86  61  87  61 /  50  20  40  20
Cliff                    92  62  93  62 /  30  20  30  10
Mule Creek               90  60  90  60 /  20  10  20  10
Faywood                  85  63  85  62 /  50  30  40  20
Animas                   92  65  92  65 /  40  30  40  20
Hachita                  89  63  89  64 /  50  40  40  30
Antelope Wells           89  63  88  65 /  50  40  40  30
Cloverdale               86  63  85  65 /  40  30  40  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for East
     Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento
     Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains
     Below 7500 Feet.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers