Las Cruces, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

193
FXUS64 KEPZ 220528
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1028 PM MST Sat Dec 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1026 PM MST Sat Dec 21 2024

 - Warm temperatures continue through the upcoming week.

 - A cold front will move through on Christmas and bring breezy to
   windy conditions.

 - Dry conditions continue for all areas through Thursday with
   just a slight chance for snow showers in the mountains come
   Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM MST Sat Dec 21 2024

An active pattern across the country with several troughs moving
through Mon/Wed/Fri. Even with this pattern, we end up on the
south end of these systems which generally leads to occasional
breezy/windy conditions. The GFS/EC have come into better
agreement with the overall timing of each trough compared to
previous runs and more in line with what both the ensemble means
supported from the 00Z runs. There is still a little difference in
the strength though, especially with regards to the Friday one.

With each system remaining to our north, the Borderland will
continue to see above normal temperatures, even behind the cold
front Wednesday. Lowlands will remain in the 60s to around 70
through Christmas and then drop into the mid 50s to lower 60s for
the end of the week. Winds will be light until that system passes
on Christmas. GFS and EC look a little stronger with H85 winds and
gradient, so did raise the NBM winds toward the 90th Percentile
and have a solid breezy to low end windy day. Still doesn`t look
like any wind highlights will be needed.

For the system Fri, operational GFS is the strongest and develops
another cutoff low over northern NM while the EC is a faster
moving open wave with not as much amplitude. Looking at the GFS
ensemble members, the operational seems to be on the extreme end
and while it will likely be another breezy day, didn`t go as
strong as the operational GFS, but did go a little stronger than
the NBM. This Friday system will have some modest moisture moving
across our northern zones and a few flakes of snow are not out of
the question with any accumulation being very light.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1026 PM MST Sat Dec 21 2024

VFR conditions at all terminals through the period. Fair weather.
Skies SKC-FEW250. Winds generally W-NW and light through 18z...then
SW-W at 5-10kts tomorrow aft 18z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MST Sat Dec 21 2024

The next few days will be warm and dry(RH`s in the teens) with
light winds...so no real fire weather concerns. An upper low will
move across the southern Rockies on Christmas and bring breezy to
windy conditions across the area. This will lead to an elevated
fire risk mainly for the Sacramento Mountains. A cold front will
accompany this system on Wednesday and drop high temperatures
about 5-10 degrees for the end of the week with some breezy
conditions returning for Friday. Vent rates will be poor to fair
Sun, improving to fair to good Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  37  70  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            40  67  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               35  69  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               31  66  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               31  51  33  46 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    34  66  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              37  66  40  62 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   27  72  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                27  70  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       35  67  40  69 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                28  69  31  68 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             31  72  33  72 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               34  62  40  62 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   33  70  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             34  67  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           37  68  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            23  67  28  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    29  71  33  72 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 32  73  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                33  68  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  33  65  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                29  61  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 26  60  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  25  64  31  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                32  65  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                29  67  36  67 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             14  67  19  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   28  67  34  66 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    19  69  23  67 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               16  66  21  63 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  29  67  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   27  72  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  24  71  32  70 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           32  72  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               40  67  41  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...14-Bird